Less humid, no thunderstorms, always warm
Monday was not a sunny day. The atmosphere was like a soggy sponge, filled with moisture. This led to a sweltering, sweltering day. And also fueled super-soaking thunderstorms. In northeastern New Jersey around Bergen and Essex counties, rainfall totals exceeded 3 inches.
It was also the first of 7 or 8 consecutive days that temperatures in New Jersey exceeded 90 degrees. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, our latest heat wave has begun.
And there will be little relief over the next week. Humidity will rise again Wednesday through Thursday, putting us on the verge of “dangerous” heat. While a popup thunderstorm is possible on Thursday, our next chance for widespread rain won’t arrive until early next week.
You know the exercise: dress for the heat, stay hydrated, and air conditioning is your friend.
I thought it was a little more bearable when I went out early on Tuesday morning. But the numbers still describe a warm, sticky start to another hot summer day.
A weak cold front pushes into a slightly drier air mass. Any ridiculous humidity reduction is a good thing. Dew points will bottom out in the 60s on Tuesday.
High temperatures on Tuesday will hit the lower 90s across most of the state. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few thermometers hit 95.
Unfortunately, you won’t find much relief on mainland beaches. The strong westerly breeze (up to 20 mph) will likely prevent a sea breeze from setting in. This means that the only places along the Jersey Shore that have a chance of not hitting 90 degrees will be the barrier islands and the shore of Delaware Bay.
It will be a mostly sunny and dry day. No risk of rain or thunderstorms.
Tuesday night will be clear and calm, if sultry. Lows will only fall in the lower 70s. (Remember that one of the most trying parts of a heat wave is when we don’t cool down enough at night.)
The humidity will increase. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer. And that means our heat wave is stepping up a notch.
In fact, the National Weather Service has already published a Heat Notice for the majority of New Jersey on Wednesday, as we near the edge of “dangerous heat” territory.
High temperatures will bottom out in the mid-90s. My calculations put the heat index (“felt” or “apparent” temperature) in the upper 90s.
Apart from the heat, we don’t encounter any weather problems for Wednesday. It will be another mostly sunny and dry day.
We will see some changes on Thursday, but not necessarily for the better.
Not only will it be hot on Thursday, but also very humid again. With highs in the mid to high 90s, I suspect the heat index will top 100 degrees. It’s hot. And it’s potentially dangerous, if you don’t take care of yourself.
A few clouds will dot the sky on Thursday. And we could see a few popup thunderstorms, fueled by heat and humidity and triggered by a weak cold front. Given our recent string of storms, I wouldn’t bet the farm on much of the state seeing a storm or heavy rain — they look very isolated, at best.
The humidity returns, but the heat continues. Maximum between 90 and 95 degrees. With more of that sweltering summer sun.
The long term forecast
It will be one of the hottest weekends of the year as the heatwave continues. But at least it will be dry.
Saturday will be mostly sunny and warm, with highs in the mid-90s. Hopefully the ambient wind will be light enough to allow a sea breeze to the Jersey Shore, which could keep beach temperatures in the years 80.
The model’s tips now show that Sunday is the hottest day of the week. Upper 90s, with a real possibility of reaching 100 degrees. (The euro goes up to 105!) We will go from sun to clouds.
Finally, early next week, a slow moving cold front will bring some relief to the hot, dry weather.
Raindrops can arrive in New Jersey as early as Sunday evening. Monday seems wet and stormy at times. And the rain could extend over part of Tuesday. Overall precipitation is not like a drought, in the range of half an inch to an inch. But there could be showers and heavy storm cells to watch out for. (Especially on Mondays.)
More importantly, this forehead will provide at least temporary relief. We will lose the 90s for at least a few days. And the humidity should drop quite sharply too.
Of course, I’m not saying it won’t warm up again – we still have more than two summer months to go.