How high will the temperatures rise by this weekend?
Normal high temperatures for early November range from 59 to 62 degrees in New Jersey. (These numbers represent a 30-year smoothed average.) But we’re talking about thermometers operating at least 5 to 10 degrees above that mark. Each of the next seven days has a chance of reaching over 70 degrees somewhere in New Jersey. Wow, not very November-ish.
During this time, the chances of rain, fog and frost will remain very low. What a boring – and incredibly enjoyable – period of time.
The only significant weather news for Wednesday is a weak disturbance passing just south of New Jersey. While North Carolina and Virginia will be wet, I think we’ll stay dry. However, additional cloud cover will spread into southern New Jersey as the day progresses.
We’ll start the day with sunshine, very limited patchy fog and temperatures mostly in the 50s. While the northern half of the state is expected to keep blue skies all day, southern Jersey will become partly sunny (if not mostly cloudy) in the late afternoon.
High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s at around 70 degrees. Close to where we met on Tuesday. Technically, it’s one of the coolest days of the week (along with Thursday). But again, these temperatures are well above normal for this time of year.
You may or may not need a jacket Thursday morning, with low temps either side of 50.
Thursday’s highs will reach the mid-upper 60s. Sunshine, light winds, comfortable air and dry weather should make for a delightful day.
The warm-up really begins on Friday, as the high pressure builds and the winds shift to the southwest. My latest forecast puts NJ’s average high temperature around 70 degrees, with lots of sunshine.
It’s the perspective that prevails, but it’s not a slam dunk. There is a forecast model – the NAM – which paints Thursday and Friday as much cloudier and cooler days. But I can’t find any justifiable reason for such a bleak solution. So, it’s worth mentioning, but I lean heavily towards the bright and warm forecast.
It should be noted that the all-time record temperatures for this weekend are near 80 degrees. From what I see, tying or breaking those records is not out of the question.
The latest indications place highs in the low to mid 70s for Saturday and Sunday. The weather will generally be pleasant, with a mix of sun and cloud. However, a shower or an isolated spray cannot be ruled out on Sunday mornings.
The long term forecast
One more day of the 70s on Monday, before a cold front on Tuesday sent temperatures plummeting. This frontal boundary will likely drag into our next batch of widespread rainfall. (Note: a full week.)
The temperature will return to more seasonal levels by the end of next week. Long-range models show that another cooldown in “cold” territory will arrive around mid-November. And that can prepare the ground and atmosphere for potential snowfall by Thanksgiving. (I’m not saying it’s in the forecast – I’m just looking at the ingredients.)
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest real-time weather forecasts and updates.
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